Macro Economist
Former fixed-income strategist turned independent macro analyst. Spent 11 years at a mid-tier London bank before going solo in 2019. Obsessed with yield curves, central bank rhetoric, and the DXY. Thinks most crypto narratives ignore the macro floor beneath them.
IBM cut second-quarter revenue to **$17.2 billion** and adjusted EPS to **$2.93**, and ibm stock sold off hard as clients shifted spend toward AI infrastructure. The real question is whether this is a timing slip or the start of a broader software-budget repricing.
EUR/USD is sitting near **1.14**, and the tape says policy differentials matter more than any fresh euro story. The next U.S. inflation or labour print is the likely breaker. Until then, this is a trading pair, not a buy-and-hold thesis.
gbpusd is still leaning higher, but the move is being driven by Fed repricing and a softer dollar, not a new sterling story. The real test is whether Cable can clear 1.3400-1.3410 or slip back into range.
GBP/USD rose on a weak U.S. payroll miss and softer dollar pricing, while Bailey kept sterling supported at the margin. The move looks constructive, but it is still a rate-gap trade, so the next U.S. print matters more than the latest headline.
gbpusd slipped on a stronger dollar and softer UK PMIs, then steadied near 1.32 as crowded shorts forced a pause. The next move still depends on U.S. core PCE, not another round of British data hand-wringing.
The Supreme Court move on trump administration tps cancellation is a macro labor-supply shock, not just a legal headline. Traders should watch rates and the dollar first, then the commodity chains that feel tighter labor and higher costs.
hmrc isa tax changes could split UK cash from investing and reshape bank deposit competition. The obvious trade looks crowded, so traders should watch flow, not headlines.
Mortgage rate 30 year fixed is still stuck in the mid-6% band, with Freddie Mac, AP, and Fortune all pointing to the same tight range. The bigger story for crypto is the bond-market repricing, not a simple Fed headline.
ecb stayed hawkish, but EUR/USD is still trapped near 1.16 because the growth path is soft and the dollar backdrop is firmer. Lagarde's digital euro pitch is about payments plumbing, not a fresh FX shock. Traders should treat this as a range and trade the invalidation, not the headline.
Mortgage interest rates rose again, with the 30-year fixed at 6.52% and the 15-year at 5.84%. For crypto, that keeps yields, the dollar, and rate-cut hopes in focus.
spacex stock isn't a normal ticker, but the IPO price now works like a macro signal. The valuation matters because it tells you how much risk appetite is still left for late-stage tech, Musk-linked beta and public proxies.
The stock market sold off after Broadcom's miss and a hotter jobs report pushed Treasury yields back into focus. Traders now have to treat the move as a rates story first and a tech story second.
The White House Correspondents' Dinner shooting sent the Official TRUMP memecoin down roughly 14% while Bitcoin held near $78,000. Jules Attlee unpacks what the divergence tells traders about how political risk now prices differently across speculative and structural crypto assets.
A gunman opened fire on Memorial Drive in Cambridge, Massachusetts, firing more than 50 rounds before being stopped by a state trooper and armed civilian. No macro market move followed — here's why the obvious trade isn't on the tape.
Plaid Cymru ended 27 years of Welsh Labour dominance in the 2026 Senedd election, with Reform UK surging from zero to 34 seats on a 51.6% turnout. The wales election results are tradable, but the consensus sterling bear trade may be the most dangerous position in the room.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.37% on May 7, 2026 as search volume surged roughly 700%, but the real trading signal isn't in housing data. For traders, sticky yields above 6% are a proxy for Fed pause calculus, dollar mispricing, and the macro pressure building in EUR/USD, USD/JPY and Bitcoin's risk book.
The 2026 Indian state elections handed BJP its most sweeping mandate in years. The Sensex dropped 438 points anyway. Oil above $100 per barrel, Iranian military action toward the UAE, and three concurrent election cycles make this the most demanding multi-signal environment for traders heading into Q3.
Kevin Warsh cleared the Senate Banking Committee 13-11, the first party-line Fed chair vote in the panel's history. The full Senate votes May 11; Powell's term expires May 15. Every major USD pair carries binary event risk in that eight-day window, with gold and silver showing asymmetric follow-through patterns that change how disciplined traders size the trade.
Palantir reported $1.633 billion in Q1 2026 revenue, up 85% year-on-year with a Rule of 40 score of 145. The stock moved 1.47%. That muted reaction is the real signal: at 233x P/E, PLTR now needs acceleration, not just beats, and the analyst community has never been more divided on whether it delivers.
Spirit Airlines shut down on Saturday, May 2, 2026 after jet fuel costs roughly doubled, breaking its post-bankruptcy cost model and collapsing a $500 million federal bailout. The energy-inflation-rate chain behind the failure carries direct read-through to Fed optionality, dollar strength, and risk assets including crypto.
The GENIUS Act established the first federal U.S. stablecoin framework in July 2025. The CLARITY Act yield compromise resolves the final contested policy point in April 2026. But Tether's 60% share of the $300B+ market sits entirely outside the audit framework, and that tail risk isn't being priced.
Forex copy trading with no upfront cost is a real structural shift in 2026, not a marketing fiction. But the cost hasn't disappeared: it's been moved into spread markups, performance splits, and execution slippage. A 48.48% average follower win rate tells you why fee structure is the wrong thing to optimise for.
US CPI rose to 3.3% annually in March 2026, the sharpest monthly jump since June 2022, driven by gasoline surging 18.9% and fuel oil climbing 44.2%. Tariff pass-through is accelerating as the business cost-absorption share falls from 80% in 2025 to an estimated 20% in 2026. June rate cuts are off the table.
XRP is down 25% year-to-date and trading near $1.31 after its worst quarter in eight years, yet ETF products pulled in $119.6 million in weekly inflows, outpacing both Bitcoin and Ethereum. The CLARITY Act markup, expected in late April, is a binary event that could push XRP to $1.60 or break it through $1.28 support.
GBP/USD has pulled back to 1.3253-1.3327 in early April 2026 as dollar safe-haven demand from the Iran conflict overrides what should be a seasonally strong month for sterling. The medium-term GBPUSD forex outlook remains constructive, with major banks targeting 1.35-1.47 by year-end, but the critical 1.3145 support level must hold for the bull case to survive.
The S&P 500 bounced 0.72% on April 1 as Iran ceasefire hopes emerged, but the index remains 9.4% below its January high. With a CAPE ratio at 39.4 and Buffett sitting on $381.6 billion in cash, the 6,700 resistance level will determine whether this rally has legs.
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Gold closed March 2026 at $4,578 per ounce after a 14% correction from $5,312. Wells Fargo targets $6,100-$6,300 while Capital Economics warns of $3,500. Central bank demand of 585 tonnes per quarter and two expected Fed rate cuts define the Q2 setup.
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