Commodities Trader
Been trading commodities since before most crypto bros were born. Started on the NYMEX floor in 2003. Now trades his own book from a home office in Cork, Ireland. Thinks gold is the only honest asset left. Has strong opinions and isn't shy about them.
The dollar index dropped to 99.43, down 4.48% over 12 months, as narrowing rate differentials and central bank divergence overwhelm safe-haven demand. Morgan Stanley targets 94 by Q2. Here's where the floor sits.
The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% in March 2026, projecting just one cut this year. With February payrolls at -92K and Brent crude above $106, the hawkish hold creates asymmetric forex setups in EUR/USD and USD/JPY heading into Q2.
The Fed revised inflation forecasts to 2.7% and effectively killed the rate cut trade. With Brent crude at $120 and the DXY surging past 100, here's where the dollar goes from here and the forex levels that matter.
U.S. inflation held at 2.4% in February but the Strait of Hormuz oil shock sent Brent above $100, slashing rate cut expectations from 60 to 26 basis points. The dollar rallied to two-month highs while forex markets reprice for a higher-for-longer Fed.
US inflation held at 2.4% in February 2026 but the backward-looking CPI data masks a brewing storm. With oil at $87, gasoline up 20%, and the Fed trapped between an energy shock and a softening economy, the next prints will tell a very different story.
Silver surged to $88.38/oz on March 10, 2026, up 175% year-over-year. With annual supply deficits of 100-250 million ounces and solar demand at 200 million ounces per year, the $80-$90 battle lines will define where this metal goes next.
WTI crude's 35.63% weekly gain is the largest in futures history since 1983, driven by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz following U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran. Here's where the rally has legs and where it hits a wall.
Gold hit an all-time high of $5,419/oz on March 3, 2026, before settling at $5,092 — a 76% year-over-year gain. Central bank buying, geopolitical risk, and rate cut expectations are driving the move, with major banks targeting $5,400-$6,300 by year-end.
Want to see verified trading results from the AO Trading community?
Try Shadow Free View Live ResultsTrading involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. NFA.